The Flippening is Coming

When cumulative chip FLOPS exceeds all human brainpower born since 1970

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What is this? ▼
FOOM The hypothetical moment of explosive, recursive AI self-improvement. Coined by Eliezer Yudkowsky. When the curve goes vertical.
FLOPS Floating Point Operations Per Second. For chips: measured compute. For brains: estimated at 1014–1018 ops/s depending on model.
The Flippening The crossover point where humanity's silicon creations exceed the raw computational substrate that created them.
How the model works ▼
Human curve For each year since 1970, estimate global births and multiply by a brain compute assumption (10^14, 10^16, or 10^18 ops per second). Then sum across years to get a cumulative total.
Chip curve For each year since 1970, estimate total FLOPS shipped that year (historical anchors with interpolation, then a growth rate), then sum across years to get a cumulative total.
Controls The buttons and slider change the assumptions and recompute the series immediately. The calculus toggle switches between cumulative, rate (d/dt), and acceleration (d²/dt²) views.
Privacy ▼
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Why Pure curiosity. No ads, no selling, and no cross-site tracking. Data expires after about 90 days.
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Since you opened this page: 0 brains born, 0 FLOPS capacity added
Cumulative Human Brain ops/s (since 1970)
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Cumulative Chip FLOPS (since 1970)
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ESTIMATED CROSSOVER DATE
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∫ Cumulative
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ADJUST ASSUMPTIONS

35%

DATA SOURCES & ASSUMPTIONS

Birth Rate Data
Current: ~132.4M births/year (2025) = ~4.2 births/second
Historical peak: 146M births in 2012. Projected stable at 130-140M through 2050s.
Human Brain Processing Estimates
Conservative: 10^14 ops/s - Moravec's retinal processing extrapolation
Moderate: 10^16 ops/s - Synapse count × firing rate estimate
Aggressive: 10^18 ops/s - Full neural complexity estimate
Note: MIPS ≈ operations/second for comparison purposes. Actual brain computation is non-comparable.
Chip Production Data
2007: 2×10^20 IPS global capacity (Hilbert & Lopez, 2012)
2021: 1.15T semiconductor units shipped (WSTS)
2023: NVIDIA shipped ~550K H100s @ 4 petaFLOPS = 2.2×10^21 FLOPS
2024: NVIDIA ~2M H100-equiv, $130B data center revenue (SEC 10-K)
2025: Epoch AI projects 6.5-7M AI GPUs; installed base ~4M H100-equiv
Hardware FLOPS/$ doubles every ~2.5 years (Epoch AI GPU dataset)
Future Predictions (🔮 in tooltips)
AI-2027.com — Detailed scenario forecasting AGI/ASI timeline through 2027
Situational Awareness — Leopold Aschenbrenner's analysis: "AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible"
AI-2027: Superhuman coder by March 2027, superhuman AI researcher by Sept 2027, potential superintelligence by Dec 2027.
Situational Awareness: Intelligence explosion could compress "a decade of progress into ≤1 year." $100B+ compute clusters by end of decade.
Note: These are speculative forecasts, not established fact. Included for context on current AI timeline discourse.
Inspiration
"Welcome to the early twenty-first century, human.

It's night in Milton Keynes, sunrise in Hong Kong. Moore's Law rolls inexorably on, dragging humanity toward the uncertain future. The planets of the solar system have a combined mass of approximately 2 × 1027 kilograms. Around the world, laboring women produce forty-five thousand babies a day, representing 1023 MIPS of processing power. Also around the world, fab lines casually churn out thirty million microprocessors a day, representing 1023 MIPS. In another ten months, most of the MIPS being added to the solar system will be machine-hosted for the first time. About ten years after that, the solar system's installed processing power will nudge the critical 1 MIPS per gram threshold – one million instructions per second per gram of matter. After that, singularity – a vanishing point beyond which extrapolating progress becomes meaningless. The time remaining before the intelligence spike is down to single-digit years ..."
— Charles Stross, Accelerando (2005)

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